Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2104

   Mesoscale Discussion 2104
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

   Areas affected...central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242055Z - 242300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front
   across west-central OK late this afternoon into this evening. Strong
   mid-level flow, adequate surface moisture and buoyancy will support
   a risk for severe hail and isolated damaging winds. Confidence in
   the convective evolution is somewhat low, but the severe risk may
   require a weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon WV imagery showed a large upper trough over
   the central US. Behind the large trough, an embedded shortwave
   perturbation was moving out of the central Rockies and over the
   southern Plains. beneath the mid-level ascent ahead of the shortwave
   trough, a weak surface low and cold front were moving into western
   OK. Visible imagery and SPC mesoanalysis show towering cumulus has
   begun deepening near the triple point and along the trailing front
   into the TX Panhandle. Low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints and 7-7.5
   C/km mid-level lapse rates were supporting weak to moderate
   destabilization despite lingering cirrostratus across OK.

   Further heating and weak low-level warm advection ahead of the
   surface low should support continued destabilization and removal of
   remaining inhibition through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm
   development is expected along the cold front, and more elevated
   development near/north of the warm front with storms moving
   east/southeast towards central OK. Increasingly strong mid and
   upper-level flow from the KTLX/KVNX VADs are supporting long
   hodographs favorable for supercells. While lapse rates and buoyancy
   are not overly impressive, modestly cool mid-level temps, robust
   forcing and strong deep-layer shear suggest any supercells that
   develop will be capable of severe hail and isolated damaging gusts.

   Confidence in the exact timing of storm development and the
   convective evolution remains unclear. Most hi-res guidance favors
   near-surface based storms developing late this afternoon, with some
   solutions holding off until early evening. While uncertain, the
   environment is expected to support a risk for severe hail, and a
   watch may be needed.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 09/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34549557 34099608 33909673 34049729 34399884 34689928
               35529963 36549872 36629741 36159613 35629583 35109573
               34549557