Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2066

   Mesoscale Discussion 2066
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Utah and adjacent portions of western
   Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121924Z - 122200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing an isolated threat of hail and
   damaging winds will continue through the afternoon across the area.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow axis of clearing and destabilization has
   developed across the area.  As a result, storms have reinvigorated
   across eastern Utah ahead of a midlevel impulse swinging
   north-northeastward across the southern Great Basin.  While
   instability is limited (~500 J/kg MLCAPE), strong deep-layer shear
   (over 50 knots per 18Z GJT sounding) and forcing for ascent are
   aiding in storm organization.  Furthermore, long, straight
   hodographs will favor storm splitting.  Consequently, large hail and
   damaging winds may be possible from the strongest storms this
   afternoon.  The severe threat is expected to be too isolated to
   warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Jirak/Guyer.. 09/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   37221013 38931024 40110983 40370934 40370892 40290870
               40020842 39040842 38270837 37240876 37080928 37221013 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN