Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2046

   Mesoscale Discussion 2046
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

   Areas affected...South-central MT and central WY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032047Z - 032245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail
   will be possible into early evening, as scattered thunderstorms
   spread east of the higher terrain in south-central Montana to
   central Wyoming.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has become scattered across the
   northern Rockies, downstream of the smoke-filled mid-level low
   gradually pivoting east over central ID. The leading convection,
   exiting the Absaroka Range, should spread towards the greater
   Billings area in the next couple hours. This activity should tend to
   weaken over southeast MT/northeast WY as it outpaces the eastern
   gradient of the weak buoyancy plume. Farther south, convection over
   western WY should similarly spread into parts of the Wind River
   Basin. With surface temperature-dew point spreads commonly from
   40-50 F, strong to severe gusts of 55-70 mph will be the primary
   hazard into early evening. This threat should remain relatively
   localized and sporadic owing to weak lower-level northwesterlies
   beneath 30-45 kt mid-level southwesterlies, per the Billings and
   Riverton VWPs.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 09/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46431077 47151071 47390960 46840798 45350675 44150666
               42760676 41970728 41770826 42240926 43420920 45210949
               46431077