Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2027

   Mesoscale Discussion 2027
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

   Areas affected...central and eastern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 290547Z - 290715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few supercells across central North Dakota are expected
   to persist into eastern North Dakota early this morning with a
   threat or isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite shows a decaying MCS across
   southeast North Dakota as this cluster moves east of the better
   instability. Across western and central North Dakota, a significant
   increase in convection has occurred during the last hour within the
   post-frontal airmass due to a combination of strengthening
   isentropic ascent and DCVA ahead of the approaching mid-level
   trough. Between this post-frontal convection and the decaying MCS a
   locally favorable environment exists. MUCAPE around 2000 to 3000
   J/kg on the apex of a strengthening low-level jet and strong shear
   (50-60 knots per BIS VWP) will support strong to severe supercells.
   While this environment will be quite favorable for the next 1 to 2
   hours, expect storms to quickly outpace this better environment and
   thus weaken across eastern/northeast North Dakota. Due to the
   limited temporal nature of the threat, no severe thunderstorm watch
   is justified.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46279930 46950013 47950026 48579988 48869896 48729772
               47839716 46819762 46319806 46279930