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| Mesoscale Discussion 2002 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2002 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Areas affected...Western SD into the northern NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650... Valid 262151Z - 262315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado will spread eastward through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...A storm cluster is becoming increasingly well organized this afternoon from the Black Hills vicinity to near the NE/SD border, immediately in advance of a seasonably strong shortwave trough moving across northern WY/southern MT. While the mode has already become primarily linear, MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support embedded supercell structures. As this developing QLCS moves eastward, it will be accompanied by a threat of severe gusts, with some increasing threat for significant gusts (greater than 75 mph) if continued upscale growth occurs. Hail (locally in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and possibly a tornado will also be possible with embedded supercells, especially along the southern portion of the QLCS, where instability is stronger and the line will intersect a nearly stationary surface boundary near the NE/SD border. ..Dean.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 44670401 44650297 44350204 43900170 43210161 42670184 42400218 42260262 42130320 42120394 42430392 42960376 43300366 43610359 43890360 44670401 |
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