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| Mesoscale Discussion 1963 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024
Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 201921Z - 202115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and strong to severe gusts.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is increasing across southeastern
Colorado and northern New Mexico. Temperatures in this region have
warmed into the upper 80s to 90s with dew points in the upper 40s to
50s along the higher terrain, increasing to the mid 60s across the
lower plains. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large dew point
depressions may support a few instances of strong to severe wind
with any stronger cores. Across southeastern Colorado, a MLCAPE
gradient of 1000-2500 J/kg will support a few instances of hail and
gusty winds. Given lack of deep layer shear for organization and
strong ridging aloft, this threat should remain localized and a
watch is not likely to be needed.
..Thornton/Hart.. 08/20/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37050196 36310308 36170510 37430611 38630580 39350385
39340303 38600219 38240200 37050196
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