Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 196

   Mesoscale Discussion 0196
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0721 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Iowa northern Illinois far southern
   Wisconsin into southern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35...

   Valid 110021Z - 110145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Numerous supercells will remain capable of significant
   hail this evening. Damaging gusts may also be possible as storms
   conglomerate tonight.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0015 UTC, regional radar imagery showed numerous
   thunderstorms ongoing along and north of the warm frontal zone into
   parts of IA/IL/WI and MI. Most of these storms are on the cool side
   of the boundary and will remain so this evening. Robust MUCAPE
   (1000-2000J/kg) and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support
   strong supercells over much of WW35.

   Given the degree of buoyancy large hail is likely. Isolated very
   large hail is also possible with more intense cluster of supercells
   on the immediate cool side of the warm front in northern IL as well.
   With time, upscale growth into small bowing segments with some
   potential for damaging gusts is expected tonight. The severe risk
   should continue to increase over much of WW35 this evening. WW35 has
   been locally extended farther east across portions of the GRR CWA.

   ..Lyons.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   41929170 42559109 43228751 43538498 43488451 42118433
               42088555 41988617 41838698 41468748 41258850 40998978
               41069080 41349154 41929170 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN