Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1951

   Mesoscale Discussion 1951
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0613 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest Arkansas into east-central Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...

   Valid 182313Z - 190115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail will remain
   possible into the early evening. Storms in northwest and
   south-central Arkansas will pose the greatest risk of these hazards.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storm development in central Arkansas has
   produced a cold pool that is pushing south and east. Storms,
   particularly along the southern edge where it is more unstable,
   continue to develop. Recently, Pine Bluff gusted to 44 kts as storms
   moved through. this activity will continue to pose a risk for
   damaging winds and isolated large hail as it progresses
   south/southeast.

   In Northwest Arkansas, additional storms are beginning to develop as
   a weakening MCV/cold pool moves into the strongly buoyant airmass.
   Wind gusts of 44-56 kts have already been observed with this
   activity. Isolated large hail may also occur within initially
   discrete updrafts. The airmass in west-central Arkansas has thus far
   not been affected by convection and this activity may tend to
   propagate into this area.

   ..Wendt.. 08/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35979528 36519477 36719404 36669352 35249180 35219169
               34069057 33219048 32759136 32759200 32889231 33189310
               35979528