Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 194

   Mesoscale Discussion 0194
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0627 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern Illinois into NORTHERN
   Indiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

   Valid 102327Z - 110030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

   SUMMARY...An intense supercell over eastern Kankakee county IL is
   likely to persist along the warm front with a risk for very large
   hail and strong tornadoes this evening. A downstream tornado watch
   will also need to be issued into northern IN.

   DISCUSSION...An intense supercell over portions of eastern Kankakee
   county IL has shown signs of rapid organization over the last 30
   minutes. Several recent reports of very large have been noted along
   with an intensifying low-level mesocyclone from radar imagery. The
   environment along the warm front from eastern IL into northern IN
   remains very favorable for intense supercells with moderate
   instability and ESRH 300-400 m2/s2. This is yielding effective STP
   values of 4-5.

   Given the isolated nature of the supercell, strongly backed
   low-level flow/shear, tornadoes (strong to intense) along with very
   large hail appear likely over the next hour or two. This should
   continue into northern IN, with the potential for additional storms
   to develop over the next couple of hours. Given the proximity to the
   eastern edge of Tornado Watch 32, a downstream watch over portions
   of IN will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.

   ..Lyons.. 03/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41258809 41548758 41588713 41778608 41708541 41648481
               41428470 41068467 40848468 40768538 40718602 40748645
               40798688 40948802 41258809 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN