Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1924

   Mesoscale Discussion 1924
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast KS...southwest MO...far northeast OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102209Z - 110015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storms may develop into early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storm initiation appears to be underway across
   southeast KS late this afternoon, in the vicinity of a surface
   boundary. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) will
   support potential for vigorous updrafts. Deep-layer flow is
   relatively modest, though veering wind profiles near/north of the
   boundary are resulting in effective SRH of around 100 m2/s, and at
   least transient storm organization will be possible given the
   magnitude of instability. A threat for isolated large hail and
   strong/damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms, and a
   tornado cannot be ruled out given the potential for storm/boundary
   interactions. There may be a tendency for storms to quickly become
   outflow dominant within the rather weak flow regime, which could
   limit the longevity of individual storms and keep the severe threat
   relatively isolated. 

   Initial storms may remain focused across southeast KS and southwest
   MO, but guidance generally suggests potential for backbuilding
   toward south-central KS and far north-central OK with time this
   evening, as low-level warm advection gradually increases near/north
   of the boundary within a strongly unstable and weakly capped
   environment.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 08/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36739750 36659816 37219832 37839798 38439614 38469336
               38469249 37759226 37189395 36899552 36799687 36739750 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN