Mesoscale Discussion 0190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Areas affected...far northern Oklahoma into much of southern and
eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 102151Z - 110015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to increase from northwest Oklahoma
into south-central and eastern Kansas, with large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes possible.
DISCUSSION...A boundary currently extends southwestward from the low
in northwest MO, demarcating the warm and moist air mass to the
south. This boundary is relatively stationary, and is not expected
to move much this evening.
As such, the ongoing cells will likely increase in intensity and
coverage as they travel roughly along the boundary. Lapse rates and
shear are all favorable for damaging hail, and even significant
damaging gusts. Mixed-storm modes will be possible over time, but
the increasing 850 mb winds this evening may still yield a risk of
tornadoes. Given the steep lapse rates aloft, the area will need to
be monitored this evening for strong tornado potential into
southeast Kansas area.
..Jewell/Hart.. 03/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36399911 36389974 36669985 37179894 37979747 39449510
39509465 39289431 38179438 37399477 37059538 36719700
36399911
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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