Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1896

   Mesoscale Discussion 1896
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0818 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwestern Kansas...and
   Southwestern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620...

   Valid 140118Z - 140245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat continues for WW 620, where thunderstorms have
   organized into a linear bowing MCS capable of damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have grown upscale into a linear-bowing
   MCS, moving eastward off the High Plains and into northwestern
   Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. Reports of 60-70 MPH winds have
   been associated with this complex, and it is moving into an
   environment with stronger CAPE/shear combinations that should result
   in further intensification. Additionally, surface flow ahead of the
   MCS is nearly perpendicular to the outflow boundary/cold pool, which
   should aid in maintaining upright convection and maintain MCS
   intensity with eastward extent. The greatest threat for damaging
   winds will be at the apex of any bowing segments, especially if a
   rear inflow jet is able to develop. While the primary threat will be
   for damaging winds, some brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out due to
   significant curvature of the low-level hodographs evident in recent
   KGLD VAD wind profiles, where 0-1 km SRH and 0-3 km SRH have
   increased to 148 m^2/s^2 and 318 m^2/s^2, respectively.

   ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39220271 39390324 39520349 39740344 39880327 40070315
               40340309 40560306 40800302 41070287 41300274 41410208
               41410157 41390085 41170025 40959999 40450006 40000041
               39590096 39310149 39130186 39220271