Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1895

   Mesoscale Discussion 1895
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0525 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025

   Areas affected...Western SD...northeast WY...and far southeast MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062225Z - 070000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk of large hail and locally severe gusts
   may persist for the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated/cellular thunderstorms are evolving in the
   vicinity of the Black Hills, where an axis of middle/upper 50s
   dewpoints and diurnal heating have yielded weak surface-based
   buoyancy (per modified 18Z UNR and RAP soundings). While buoyancy is
   somewhat marginal, an elongated/straight hodograph (around 50 kt of
   effective shear) should promote transient convective
   organization/supercellular structure. Isolated large hail and
   locally severe gusts may accompany any longer-lived cells. However,
   minimal large-scale ascent (or even slight midlevel height rises)
   should keep the severe risk isolated/localized and brief.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 08/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   44640241 44240268 44030332 44140411 44370500 44480533
               44700555 44990556 45370523 45570470 45590413 45440325
               45220265 44970240 44640241 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN