Mesoscale Discussion 1889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026 Areas affected...Far northeast Colorado...southwest Nebraska...and far northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549... Valid 100329Z - 100530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for severe wind will continue across portions of far northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska for the next couple of hours. There is some potential for a continuation of severe winds into portions of far northwest Kansas later tonight, but confidence in this threat is limited. DISCUSSION...Over the past two hours, convection within a loosely organized band of storms has largely evolved as expected with the strongest cores now residing in far northeast CO - largely owing to the effects of increasing inhibition with eastward extent towards the North Platte, NE area. Despite this contraction in the band, latest echo top and GOES IR trends continue to show robust updraft development within the remaining cluster, suggesting that the near-storm environment across northeast CO/southwest NE remains supportive for intense convection. Additionally, KGLD velocity imagery shows hints of an emerging outflow surge, suggesting that this cluster will continue to pose a threat for severe wind, and perhaps transient hail, for the next hour or two as it continues to migrate across a relatively buoyant environment. Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS both suggest that this cluster will continue to intensify with an expanding wind field through roughly 05-07 UTC as it spreads into southwest NE and far northwest KS. However, both of these solutions have been depicting broad cold pools with temperatures in the 65-70 F range. Surface observations have mostly been reporting cold pool temperatures in the 70-75 F range, suggesting that the modeled cold pools may be too deep/intense compared to reality. Consequently, this casts uncertainty on how widespread and intense the wind threat will be beyond the next 1-2 hours. Nonetheless, the downstream environment into northwest KS features only weak/shallow capping and MLCAPE values of around 2500 J/kg, which may support at least an isolated severe wind threat beyond WW 549. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and downstream watch issuance is possible. ..Moore.. 08/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40760281 41040275 41190247 41290206 41030157 40650089 40349971 40109956 39869953 39649978 39530006 39480050 39450109 39550165 39680207 39930233 40190262 40500275 40760281 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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