Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio and much of Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605...606... Valid 062029Z - 062130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605, 606 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 605-606. Damaging gusts should remain the primary threat, though a couple instances of large hail are possible and a tornado still cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...At least three linear convective complexes have organized across northern OH into PA and NJ over the last few hours, with the north OH and central PA complexes having a history of producing strong, damaging gusts. A radar-indicated tornado also occurred with a QLCS circulation just south of Cleveland, OH. The western lines of storms are progressive, with the central PA line of storms having the most residence time within an ambient unstable airmass characterized by 85-90 F surface temperatures and up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, the northern OH complex is poised to overspread a convectively overturned airmass over the next few hours, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. In the meantime (i.e. next couple of hours), an additional QLCS tornado may still occur given the presence of mesovortices established in the leading-line of convection. Storms in southeast PA into NJ are not as progressive, and they have been overturning the airmass in the region, which may limit the severe threat with the central PA storms as they approach this worked over airmass. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41448295 41878061 41477492 40527374 39927391 39567532 39757871 40038122 40248233 40678325 41448295
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1848
06
Aug