Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 183

   Mesoscale Discussion 0183
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0642 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

   Areas affected...southern Mississippi into far eastern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092342Z - 100145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm or two may persist this evening in the short term.
   Coverage and longevity of severe potential is not expected to
   warrant a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and upper 60s F dewpoints have led to
   moderate instability over the northern Gulf Coast area with MUCAPE
   around 2000 J/kg. While the primary lift is with the wave moving
   across northern AL, scattered storms persist extending southwestward
   across much of MS and into eastern LA.

   The VWP from HDC shows veering winds with height, with 35-40 kt
   effective shear, as well as 0-1 km SRH near 100 m2/s2. Given the
   uncapped air mass and favorably shaped hodograph, some cells have
   exhibited supercell characteristics at times.

   As the boundary layer begins to cool this evening, the number and
   intensity of cells is expected to decrease. In the short term,
   localized hail, a brief tornado or strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30829104 31269068 31888982 32098872 31848813 31408798
               30768828 30578884 30539051 30829104 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN