Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1805

   Mesoscale Discussion 1805
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

   Areas affected...much of southern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031917Z - 032145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief/weak tornado
   remain possible across southern Florida today, but a watch is not
   anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Daytime heating along with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints
   is resulting in moderate instability, which is aiding a band of
   convection over far southern FL. Additional cells east of the main
   band are noted on radar, with signs of outflow surges pushing
   northwestward.

   Thus far, low-level shear has not strengthened much. Area VWPs
   indicate 0-1 SRH values generally in the 75-100 m2/s2 range, which
   is on the low-end for tornado potential. However, as the TC deepens
   and low-level convergence increases, some of these bands could
   become a bit better organized, at which time the stronger cells
   could exhibit transient mesocyclones. Otherwise, moderate mean winds
   in the lowest few km will favor strong to locally damaging wind
   gusts.

   ..Jewell.. 08/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26178205 26898248 27478282 27958283 28268216 28028127
               27388032 26807993 26017996 25408010 24908050 24558131
               24418208 24658221 25598211 26178205