Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1782

   Mesoscale Discussion 1782
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western Nebraska
   and southwestern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252209Z - 252345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few of the stronger storms may produce isolated severe
   gusts and perhaps hail through the afternoon and early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively isolated thunderstorms have developed off of
   the higher terrain, from eastern CO into western NE and southwestern
   SD, driven by afternoon peak heating and orographic lift amid eroded
   MLCINH. These storms may meander eastward over the next few hours,
   where surface temperatures/dewpoints in the 90s/50s, beneath 8+ C/km
   tropospheric lapse rates, support 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical wind
   shear is weak, and the weak forcing also suggests that storms should
   remain isolated, so the severe wind/hail risks should be sparse at
   best.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39580488 40790486 41070484 41800431 43490344 44250342
               44490319 44380240 43530196 42370195 40760250 39360296
               39060315 38940351 38970422 39580488 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN