Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1714

   Mesoscale Discussion 1714
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

   Areas affected...northwestern Minnesota and adjacent portions of
   North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262306Z - 270100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...One or two supercells may evolve through the 7-9 PM CDT
   time frame, accompanied by potential for large hail and some risk
   for a brief tornado.  This is not anticipated to require a severe
   weather watch, but trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air,
   a seasonably moist boundary-layer across parts of the Red River
   Valley has become characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000-3000
   J/kg.  This is generally focused within narrow corridors near the
   Red River, and immediately ahead of a weak eastward advancing cold
   front.  Although lingering mid-level inhibition has slowed
   convective development, the initiation of sustained isolated to
   widely scattered thunderstorm development appears underway.

   Subtle mid-level cooling near the southern periphery of a mid-level
   cyclone crossing the Canadian Prairies may gradually erode
   inhibition further into early evening.  However, based on the
   various model output, it remains unclear whether this will become
   supportive of a substantive increase in convective coverage.  Even
   so, given at least a narrow window for continuing inflow of
   moderately unstable air, ongoing activity probably will continue to
   intensify.  One or two supercells may eventually evolve in the
   presence of 35-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow.  Low-level
   hodographs appear modest, but a brief tornado may not be out of the
   question, in addition to a risk for large hail.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48439677 49859579 50169531 49399466 47809588 47819669
               48439677