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Mesoscale Discussion 1713 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Areas affected...Central and Southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262221Z - 262345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some severe gusts are possible as storms move off of the higher terrain into an environment characterized by hot and dry boundary-layer profiles. Due to the isolated nature of this convection, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Storms that developed this afternoon on the Mogollon Rim have begun to move into southern Arizona and the lower terrain, where hot and dry boundary layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow capable of 60 MPH winds. The greatest chances for severe wind gusts will be with the most intense convective cores moving towards the eastern portions of Phoenix, where some loose organization of outflow into a bowing segment has been observed. Further southeast near Tuscon, surface observations show cooler and drier air, resulting in a relative minima of ML/MUCAPE. Any storms that move into this environment may decrease in intensity more quickly than western portions of the risk area. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 34061133 33931110 33861099 33861084 33841070 33801051 33771024 33571020 33351016 33081028 32731050 32221087 32031113 31951157 32021189 32161213 32501225 32891226 33181217 33701200 34001172 34161153 34061133 |
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