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Mesoscale Discussion 1712 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into northwest Nebraska and southwest South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262045Z - 262245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should continue to increase across eastern Wyoming into far northwest Nebraska and southwest South Dakota through the late afternoon. The primary hazard with this convection will be sporadic severe wind gusts. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows a gradual build up and deepening of cumulus along a surface cold front across portions of eastern WY, northwest NE, and southwest SD, as well as within the terrain of the Black Hills. Additionally, new convective development is noted on an expanding cold pool emanating out of northern CO/far southeast WY. This activity has largely remained sub-severe thus far, likely owing to a combination of poor deep-layer shear and meager buoyancy within a well-mixed and relatively dry environment. However, increasing ascent ahead of a subtle mid-level impulse (translating eastward across southern WY) along with rapidly diminishing MLCIN will likely result in increased thunderstorm coverage along the front and outflow boundary in the next couple of hours (a few lightning flashes have already been noted with the shallow convection over the Black Hills). Mean storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors oriented largely along the front should foster storm interactions resulting in multicell clusters later this evening. Given the deeply-mixed boundary layer in place across the region, strong to severe downburst winds appear to be the predominant hazard. 25-30 knot mid-level flow may support some organization of deeper cells or more consolidated clusters, but convective outflow will likely limit the potential for long-lived, well-organized convection. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42170274 41860299 41630311 41510324 41410347 41370364 41360378 41420398 41520428 41720455 42020470 42350473 43080473 43640459 44320397 44730325 44770282 44730232 44620186 44320148 44060135 43690138 43300155 42660228 42170274 |
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