Mesoscale Discussion 1706 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Northeastern Virginia...Central/Southern Maryland...and far western Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251901Z - 252030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may produce localized wind damage, however, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Surface heating has occurred this morning into the early afternoon north of a mid-level cloud shield, with surface temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s F, allowing for some destabilization to occur. Consequently, some isolated convective development has ensued where enough residual low-level moisture, characterized by dew point temperatures in the upper 60s F, remains within a post-frontal airmass. This combination is yielding around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Meanwhile, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft within the right-entrance region of a mid-level jet is resulting in effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, along with some vertical ascent. Additional focused convective development is now occurring along the an east-west oriented cold front in northeast Virginia and into portions of central/southern Maryland and moving into a localized corridor of instability peaking near 1000 J/kg ahead of the front. The aforementioned convective development is expected to continue into the afternoon, with scattered storms expected, a few a which may produce downdraft winds capable of localized damage. However, the the expected coverage of the severe threat will likely preclude watch issuance. ..Karstens/Smith.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 37977662 37737830 38057859 38587854 39347747 39427668 39437596 39007563 38307564 37977662
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1706
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25
Jul