Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1706

   Mesoscale Discussion 1706
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0201 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of Northeastern
   Virginia...Central/Southern Maryland...and far western Delaware

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251901Z - 252030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms may produce localized wind damage, however,
   watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Surface heating has occurred this morning into the
   early afternoon north of a mid-level cloud shield, with surface
   temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s F, allowing for some
   destabilization to occur. Consequently, some isolated convective
   development has ensued where enough residual low-level moisture,
   characterized by dew point temperatures in the upper 60s F, remains
   within a post-frontal airmass. This combination is yielding around
   500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Meanwhile, enhanced west-southwesterly flow
   aloft within the right-entrance region of a mid-level jet is
   resulting in effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, along with some
   vertical ascent. Additional focused convective development is now
   occurring along the an east-west oriented cold front in northeast
   Virginia and into portions of central/southern Maryland and moving
   into a localized corridor of instability peaking near 1000 J/kg
   ahead of the front.

   The aforementioned convective development is expected to continue
   into the afternoon, with scattered storms expected, a few a which
   may produce downdraft winds capable of localized damage. However,
   the the expected coverage of the severe threat will likely preclude
   watch issuance.

   ..Karstens/Smith.. 07/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37977662 37737830 38057859 38587854 39347747 39427668
               39437596 39007563 38307564 37977662