Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1646

   Mesoscale Discussion 1646
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...Western and Central
   Ohio...Southeast Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542...543...

   Valid 160538Z - 160745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542, 543
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat may continue for a few more hours
   across the southern Great Lakes region. The threat is expected to
   impact parts of western and central Ohio. However, the threat is
   expected to become more isolated with time.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a decaying linear
   MCS from southern Lower Michigan into central Indiana and Central
   Illinois. The eastern most part of the MCS is located near a pocket
   of strong instability, where MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the
   3000 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, the
   convective line is being supported by a shortwave trough, evident on
   water vapor imagery over the southwestern Great Lakes. A distinct 50
   to 70 knot rear inflow jet is analyzed by the RAP just behind the
   MCS. This feature will help the linear MCS to remain strong enough
   for an isolated wind-damage threat for a few more hours. However,
   satellite imagery shows warming cloud tops over the last hour,
   corresponding to more ragged reflectively on radar, suggesting that
   the MCS will continue to gradually decrease in intensity.

   ..Broyles.. 07/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   39638643 39438639 39258609 39128494 39328362 39948253
               40698197 41368184 41888220 42238297 42528453 42418507
               41958514 41118520 40398572 39888622 39638643