Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 161

   Mesoscale Discussion 0161
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern OK/northeast TX into
   central/western AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 20...

   Valid 070740Z - 070945Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 20 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for all severe hazards may develop eastward
   overnight. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convection is ongoing early this
   morning from eastern OK into northwest AR. While some weakening of
   low-level flow has been noted in the KSRX VWP, wind profiles remain
   quite favorable for organized storms, with moderate deep-layer shear
   and effective SRH near/above 250 m2/s2. SPC objective mesoanalysis
   and short-term RAP forecasts suggest maintenance or a modest
   increase in MLCAPE will be possible overnight, as somewhat richer
   low-level moisture continues to be transported into the region from
   the southwest. This could still lead to some intensification of
   ongoing convection prior to the arrival of an approaching cold
   front, with potential for localized severe hail/wind and possibly a
   tornado.  

   Farther south, storms are gradually increasing in coverage and
   intensity across northeast TX, within the zone of somewhat
   richer/deeper low-level moisture. Given the time of night and
   relatively subtle forcing across the region, uncertainty remains
   regarding potential for this area of convection to mature, but
   supercell development will be possible as this area of convection
   spreads northeastward. Any sustained supercells within this
   environment could pose a threat for all severe hazards, so new watch
   issuance from northeast TX into much of AR is possible if trends
   support maturation of these prefrontal storms.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 03/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32569565 33889554 35519517 36469417 36459311 36429150
               36079126 35669142 34769212 33879283 32929365 32339457
               32119531 32309553 32569565 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN