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Mesoscale Discussion 1575 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0504 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Areas affected...southeast NE...northeast KS...southern IA...northern MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519... Valid 102204Z - 102330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind may persist into the early evening. There is some potential for redevelopment northwest of the ongoing storms. DISCUSSION...A compact mid/upper-level low will continue moving south-southeastward across Iowa into this evening. Strong to occasionally severe storms that earlier developed across southwest IA are moving into northern MO late this afternoon. Storms have struggled to remain organized thus far, likely due to marginal effective shear (generally 20-30 kt). However, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg) and seasonably cool temperatures aloft could support occasional hail potential with the strongest updrafts. Rather extensive outflow has developed in the wake of these storms, which could support an isolated damaging-wind threat with any stronger storms along or just behind the gust front. Farther northwest into eastern NE, there is less influence from convective outflow, with moderate buoyancy expected to persist into early evening. While the surface pattern is rather nebulous, additional development is underway across the northwest portion of WW 519, and also just to the west of the watch, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. Trends will continue to be monitored for the potential need of local watch expansion to the north and west of WW 319. ..Dean.. 07/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 41029776 41489601 40999502 40639341 40799184 40229147 39679146 39319247 39499482 39629604 39809672 40089727 40209756 41029776 |
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