Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1574

   Mesoscale Discussion 1574
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

   Areas affected...northern Missouri into far southern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101917Z - 102115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated damaging wind gusts or brief hail are
   possible across much of northern Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...An area of thunderstorms associated with the midlevel
   shortwave trough has strengthened recently as the air mass continues
   to destabilize. Shear is not particularly strong, but cooler
   profiles aloft are supporting episodic strong updrafts with brief
   hail cores and locally severe downbursts. A severe gust was recently
   reported with a collapsing storm just southwest of KSTJ.

   This area of storms is small, but somewhat organized with upper
   support. As such, some further storm strengthening is possible as
   gradual heating occurs out of the southwest just ahead of this
   system. Other additional storms may also develop ahead/northeast of
   this cluster toward IA within a weak warm frontal zone.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40019463 40369363 40899200 40769147 40439132 40219154
               39469236 39279345 39339426 39469483 39789458 40019463 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN