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| Mesoscale Discussion 1572 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024
Areas affected...parts of southeastern Nebraska...southwestern
Iowa...northwestern Missouri...northeastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101912Z - 102145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may be accompanied by
a risk for severe hail, and perhaps increasing potential for strong
to locally severe gusts, while spreading southward through 5-6 PM
CDT.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has recently begun to intensify
across south central Iowa, likely in response to increasing inflow
of a destabilizing boundary-layer air mass characterized by
mixed-layer CAPE up to around 2000 J/kg. This is occurring near the
leading edge of a digging mid-level cold pool, which is forecast to
continue spreading southward into the lower Missouri Valley through
22-23Z.
This is embedded within relatively modest (20-25 kt) deep-layer
west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow, but shear along the
southwestern flank of the associated weak surface cold pool may
become increasingly conducive to the evolution of at least
short-lived supercell structures. New thunderstorm development is
underway along this boundary, in the wake of the lead forward
propagating cluster, and further intensification of this activity
seems probable during the next few hours. In the presence of
relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, stronger cells
may pose a risk for severe hail, and the risk for locally strong to
severe surface gusts may also become more prominent by early
evening.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/10/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 41439707 41439647 41429570 40909372 39719284 39669500
39949625 41199752 41439707
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