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| Mesoscale Discussion 1560 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Texas...western Louisiana...southwestern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 514... Valid 081948Z - 082145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...An area of potentially tornadic supercells probably will be maintained while spreading north-northeastward in advance of the remnants of Beryl through 4-6 PM CDT. An additional tornado watch may be needed across parts of southwestern into central Arkansas shortly. DISCUSSION...The low-level circulation center of Beryl is now migrating north-northeast of Huntsville, with strongest 2 hour surface pressure rises now inland of the upper Texas coast and falls north of Huntsville shifting toward the Ark-La-Tex. Beneath the mid-level warm core, evaporatively cooled air is spreading out at the surface and stabilizing an enlarging area of eastern Texas. However, upper 70s surface dew points on its northeastern and eastern periphery are maintaining weak to moderate CAPE, in the presence of large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 50+ kt south to southeasterly flow around 850 mb. This has contributed to the evolution of a number of confirmed and potentially tornadic supercells, largely focused within the more strongly convergent right front quadrant (with respect to storm motion). While this forcing spreads north through east of the Shreveport vicinity through much of southwestern Arkansas by 21-23Z, the risk for tornadoes appears likely to persist in the peak late afternoon boundary-layer instability. ..Kerr.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 33569395 33869261 30959252 30869322 31789352 32409450 33569395 |
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