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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1560

Published Date and Time: 2024-07-08 16:31:02

Mesoscale Discussion 1560
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1560
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

   Areas of northeastern Texas...western
   Louisiana...southwestern Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 514...

   Valid 081948Z - 082145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514 continues.

   SUMMARY...An area of potentially tornadic supercells probably will
   be maintained while spreading north-northeastward in advance of the
   remnants of Beryl through 4-6 PM CDT.  An additional tornado watch
   may be needed across parts of southwestern into central Arkansas

   DISCUSSION...The low-level circulation center of Beryl is now
   migrating north-northeast of Huntsville, with strongest 2 hour
   surface pressure rises now inland of the upper Texas coast and falls
   north of Huntsville shifting toward the Ark-La-Tex.  Beneath the
   mid-level warm core, evaporatively cooled air is spreading out at
   the surface  and stabilizing an enlarging area of eastern Texas. 
   However, upper 70s surface dew points on its northeastern and
   eastern periphery are maintaining weak to moderate CAPE, in the
   presence of large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 50+
   kt south to southeasterly flow around 850 mb.  

   This has contributed to the evolution of a number of confirmed and
   potentially tornadic supercells, largely focused within the more
   strongly convergent right front quadrant (with respect to storm
   motion).  While this forcing spreads north through east of the
   Shreveport vicinity through much of southwestern Arkansas by 21-23Z,
   the risk for tornadoes appears likely to persist in the peak late
   afternoon boundary-layer instability.

   ..Kerr.. 07/08/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33569395 33869261 30959252 30869322 31789352 32409450

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