Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 156

   Mesoscale Discussion 0156
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma to West-Central Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 15...18...

   Valid 070143Z - 070315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 15, 18 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercell threat, with isolated tornadoes, continues this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Complex mode of convection has evolved from northeast
   OK into west-central MO. Strong low-level warm advection is noted
   along this corridor, coincident with the LLJ. VWP data from
   INX/SGF/EAX all exhibit 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2, and
   ample buoyancy was noted on the 00z soundings from SGF/TOP/OUN. OUN
   was particularly noteworthy with 2100 J/kg MLCAPE and negligible
   inhibition. Latest radar data depicts at least two long-lived
   supercells over northeast OK, embedded within a broader mixed-mode
   elongated convective band. This activity will continue to
   spread/develop northeast, along with an attendant risk for tornadoes
   and perhaps some large hail.

   ..Darrow.. 03/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   35679631 38559447 38709303 37289384 35569533 35679631 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN