Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1547

   Mesoscale Discussion 1547
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

   Areas affected...southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 062220Z - 062315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will propagate south across western
   Kansas this evening. New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
   issued soon.

   DISCUSSION...An upward-evolving squall line has developed across
   western KS just ahead of the primary synoptic front that is surging
   south across the central high Plains. Northwesterly mid-level flow
   will increase across western KS this evening and latest model
   guidance favors a marked increase in the LLJ from the TX Panhandle
   into southwest KS. This strongly supports a long-lived MCS that
   should progress across southwest KS with an attendant risk for
   wind/hail.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 07/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38320113 38699908 37219819 37170095 38320113