2024-07-06 13:03:02
1720285878
Mesoscale Discussion 1543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Areas affected...central Nebraska into much of western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061701Z - 061900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms will generally increase in coverage over the next several hours from south-central Nebraska into northwest and western Kansas. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Beneath cool midlevel temperatures and in a zone of modest warm advection, isolated cells producing hail have formed over central NE. This area is north of the surface warm front, which diffusely extends east/west just north of the KS/NE border. Low-level moisture is generally modest with upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. However, cool temperatures aloft will combine with continued heating to produce MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and overall steepening lapse rates. Surface observations already indicate substantial warming and boundary-layer mixing ahead of the developing low near the CO/KS/NE border, with a tight temperature gradient near the warm front. Give the existence of lift near the warm front, and continued destabilization, it seems unlikely that the ongoing storms will dissipate, and thus a hail threat may persist with these cells. A rapid ramp-up of storm coverage is then anticipated later this afternoon, perhaps by 19Z-20Z along the front. This initial convection will likely produce severe hail initially, with increasing damaging wind threat as a linear mode takes shape. Shear profiles appear to favor rightward-moving storms over western KS through the afternoon, while eastward moving storms are most likely along the warm front into southern NE. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 41659864 41559800 40949752 40389783 39619906 37940035 37910122 38160171 39370175 40090154 41050042 41439980 41659864