US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1543

2024-07-06 13:03:02

   Mesoscale Discussion 1543
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

   Areas affected...central Nebraska into much of western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 061701Z - 061900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will generally increase in coverage over the next
   several hours from south-central Nebraska into northwest and western
   Kansas. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath cool midlevel temperatures and in a zone of
   modest warm advection, isolated cells producing hail have formed
   over central NE. This area is north of the surface warm front, which
   diffusely extends east/west just north of the KS/NE border.

   Low-level moisture is generally modest with upper 50s to lower 60s F
   dewpoints. However, cool temperatures aloft will combine with
   continued heating to produce MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and overall
   steepening lapse rates.

   Surface observations already indicate substantial warming and
   boundary-layer mixing ahead of the developing low near the CO/KS/NE
   border, with a tight temperature gradient near the warm front.

   Give the existence of lift near the warm front, and continued
   destabilization, it seems unlikely that the ongoing storms will
   dissipate, and thus a hail threat may persist with these cells. 

   A rapid ramp-up of storm coverage is then anticipated later this
   afternoon, perhaps by 19Z-20Z along the front. This initial
   convection will likely produce severe hail initially, with
   increasing damaging wind threat as a linear mode takes shape. Shear
   profiles appear to favor rightward-moving storms over western KS
   through the afternoon, while eastward moving storms are most likely
   along the warm front into southern NE.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/06/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41659864 41559800 40949752 40389783 39619906 37940035
               37910122 38160171 39370175 40090154 41050042 41439980

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