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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1542

2024-07-05 21:44:06

Mesoscale Discussion 1542
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1542
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0843 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507...

   Valid 060143Z - 060315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507

   SUMMARY...Large hail threat continues with robust convection this

   DISCUSSION...High-level diffluent flow continues across the southern
   Rockies early this evening. Isolated-scattered severe thunderstorms
   have evolved along the east slopes of the higher terrain where
   southeasterly low-level flow has maintained moisture (55-60F surface
   dew points) coincident with strong boundary-layer heating. Several
   supercells have evolved, and a small cluster appears to be evolving
   from Guadalupe into northern Chaves County. This activity will
   likely continue propagating south along the primary instability axis
   given the modest northwesterly 500mb flow. More isolated activity
   will continue south into far west Texas. Radar continues to suggest
   the primary risk is large hail, likely exceeding golf ball sized in
   the strongest updrafts.

   ..Darrow.. 07/06/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34860438 32750416 32720554 34900521 34860438 

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