US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1540

2024-07-05 15:45:03

   Mesoscale Discussion 1540
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051928Z - 052130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage expected to increase this afternoon, a few
   of which may produce severe hail/wind gusts, though watch issuance
   is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show a decrease in cloud cover
   throughout the late morning/early afternoon across most of eastern
   New Mexico, while strong heating has been occurring along/near the
   Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Surface observations show easterly
   upslope flow into region, with dew point temperatures in the upper
   50s and lower 60s. This combination is yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500
   J/kg, with isolated storms beginning to develop in proximity to the
   Sangre de Cristo range.

   Storm coverage should continue to increase, particularly in
   northeast New Mexico, as continued heating/destabilization occurs,
   with multicells emerging as the predominant mode. Deep-layer shear
   is notably weak across the state, approaching 30-35 kt with northern
   extent. Therefore, a few storms may organize into supercell
   structures, at least briefly, with the potential for severe
   hail/wind gusts. With time, storm coverage should expand southward,
   though coverage of the severe threat is anticipated to remain low.
   Given these expectations, watch issuance is unlikely for the region
   at this time.

   ..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35240553 36100539 36780516 36950467 36990390 36680333
               36160311 35090298 34300303 33660312 33400333 33330376
               33340436 33660492 34250527 35240553 

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