Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1540

   Mesoscale Discussion 1540
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

   Areas affected...eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 080558Z - 080700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe gusts will be possible through
   the morning across eastern SD into western MN.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms is ongoing along arcing outflow
   across eastern SD. This will soon cross the surface boundary that
   extends across eastern SD into western MN. Recent gusts 60-63 mph
   were reported across eastern SD. The environment north and south of
   the boundary remains favorably sheared and unstable, with around
   1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE an 30-40 kts of deep layer shear.
   Inhibition is strong along and south of the boundary, likely meaning
   that storms are elevated in nature which may limit the overall
   severe potential. A few strong to severe gusts may be possible
   through the morning. A watch is unlikely to be needed but trends
   will be monitored.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 07/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45649633 45619674 45319746 45179781 44759803 44259791
               43989751 43829693 43739648 43689607 43749539 43839484
               44059459 44379444 44799459 45169523 45649633 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN