Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1539

   Mesoscale Discussion 1539
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

   Areas affected...LP of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051847Z - 051945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms may produce severe hail/wind gusts, however,
   watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show an area of clearing
   across portions of the LP of Michigan as residual convection begins
   to move east of the region. The resulting surface heating has
   resulted in 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, with scattered storms developing.
   This trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the
   afternoon. Despite the weak instability, effective deep-layer shear
   of 40-45 kts should promote storm organization, with severe hail and
   damaging wind gusts possible with the strongest cells. Severe storm
   coverage is anticipated to remain somewhat isolated/transient, and
   therefore, watch issuance is unlikely for the region at this time.

   ..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43278350 42238487 41898572 43638589 44958580 45568507
               45228354 44348306 43278350