2024-07-04 02:37:02
1720075642
|
Mesoscale Discussion 1532 | |
< Previous MD | |
![]() |
|
Mesoscale Discussion 1532 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Areas affected...eastern Kansas into western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040635Z - 040830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe surface gusts with thunderstorm activity spreading toward the Missouri/Kansas state border (near and south of Kansas City) through 3-4 AM CDT, appears to be waning. It seems unlikely a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster of storms developing eastward along the Interstate 70 corridor, and east of the Interstate 135 corridor, of central Kansas appears rooted within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. This is generally forecast to continue spreading eastward ahead of a mid-level short wave trough progressing toward the lower Missouri Valley through daybreak. Earlier stronger convection appeared to develop strong mid-level rear inflow near/east of Hill City, which eventually contributed to a number of severe surface gusts across the Hayes/Russell through Salina vicinities, including up to at least 71 kt at Salina at 0538Z. This has recently been surging southeastward toward areas near and northeast of Wichita, and is now out ahead of the stronger convection now approaching the Missouri/Kansas state border (near and south of the Greater Kansas City area) through 08-08Z. Gusts associated with southeastward surging outflow seem likely to continue to wane during the next hour or two. At the same time, potential for renewed strengthening of rear inflow and downward momentum transfer seem limited, in the presence of more modest lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ..Kerr/Kerr.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 39179685 39449556 39389427 38739268 37009419 36959609 36999771 37839742 38589667 39179685 |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |