Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1532

   Mesoscale Discussion 1532
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

   Areas affected...portions of far southwestern Virginia...western and
   central North Carolina...central and eastern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071722Z - 071845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may occur with the stronger
   storms. The severe threat should remain sparse, so a WW issuance is
   not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Pulse-cellular storms have recently developed to the
   lee of the central Appalachians given strong heating, noted by
   observations with surface temperatures approaching 90 F amid lows
   70s F dewpoints. The last few runs of mesoanalyses show rapid
   steepening of boundary layer lapse rates (already over 8 C/km),
   which are contributing up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal MLCINH
   despite poor mid-level lapse rates. This buoyancy will support wet
   downburst potential with the stronger storms. Nonetheless,
   relatively weak wind fields through the troposphere should limit the
   severe threat, with a WW issuance not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34137865 33487943 33158041 33668098 34748206 35238238
               35618227 36118178 36868065 37297971 37457896 36977835
               36297822 35567832 34137865 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH