Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1530

   Mesoscale Discussion 1530
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1034 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Areas affected...northeast SD...central MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468...

   Valid 070334Z - 070500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for strong to locally severe gusts capable of
   wind damage will continue into the early overnight.  Peak gusts
   50-65 mph are possible with the stronger surges and inflections
   within the squall line.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature squall line extending from
   northeast SD east-northeastward across central MN late this evening.
   Despite gradual nocturnal cooling, the boundary layer remains
   supportive of stronger downdrafts penetrating through increased
   SBCINH.  The deeper thunderstorm cores will preferentially favor the
   western 1/2 to 1/3 of the squall line where both the lead gust front
   and parent updrafts have not become substantially displaced, and in
   closer proximity to higher theta-e.  As a result, the strong to
   locally severe wind threat will favor the western half of of the
   Watch over the next couple of hours but perhaps also extend farther
   east where small-scale bowing segments have matured.

   ..Smith.. 07/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45539301 44809587 44739682 44889723 45369733 46149379
               46459359 46629339 46609284 46379248 46069239 45539301 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN