Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1529

   Mesoscale Discussion 1529
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0602 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Areas affected...southeast ND...northwest into northern MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466...

   Valid 062302Z - 070000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe gusts will continue
   into the early evening.  The wind risk will probably increase if
   additional storm mergers occur and a severe cluster evolves over
   northern MN.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic composite shows a few
   strong to severe storms ahead of a cold front from southeast ND into
   northern MN.  Surface temperatures remain warm to the southeast of
   the ongoing storm activity with lower to mid 80s deg F, with
   dewpoints ranging from the 70s in southeast ND to the mid 60s in
   northern MN.  The glancing of a Canadian mid-level shortwave trough
   and associated large-scale ascent will provide continued impetus for
   storm development and sustenance through the early to mid evening.  
   Large hail will likely focus with the stronger cells located to the
   west and southwest of the northern MN clustering of storms, and also
   as storms mature over southeast ND into western MN this evening. 
   MRMS MESH has mostly shown remotely-sensed hail diameter values 1 to
   1.5 inches.  However, larger hail in the 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter
   range will remain possible with a supercell.  The severe-wind threat
   will probably begin to increase as further merging of outflow and
   storm clustering evolves during the evening.  Given adequately steep
   0-3 km lapse rates with relatively high PW, some of the more intense
   water-loaded cores may yield a risk for 60-75 mph gusts.

   ..Smith.. 07/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   46509779 47879639 48599463 48599382 48299326 47749361
               46049644 45959702 46029766 46509779 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN