2024-07-03 19:19:04
1720048949
Mesoscale Discussion 1528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024
Areas affected...portions of far southeast Missouri...extreme
southern Illinois...extreme southwestern Indiana...western into
central Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032310Z - 040045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts (one or two of which may reach the
50-60 mph range) remain possible this afternoon. The severe threat
is expected to remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity has
recently occurred along a stationary boundary, evident via MRMS
mosaic and regional radar imagery. These storms are slowly
propagating southward into a pristine environment with surface
temperatures still over 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints,
yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Still, vertical shear is
modest at best, with around 30 kts of effective bulk shear that is
oriented (vector-wise) roughly parallel with the orientation of
ongoing linear convection. Given 7.5 0-3 km lapse rates, at least a
couple of strong wind gusts are possible, and a severe gust cannot
be completely ruled out. Nonetheless, the severe threat should
remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...
LAT...LON 36689041 37618858 37988739 38128609 38018584 37408556
36888580 36748696 36638825 36598970 36689041