US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1528

2024-07-03 19:19:04

   Mesoscale Discussion 1528
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0610 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

   Areas affected...portions of far southeast Missouri...extreme
   southern Illinois...extreme southwestern Indiana...western into
   central Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032310Z - 040045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts (one or two of which may reach the
   50-60 mph range) remain possible this afternoon. The severe threat
   is expected to remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity has
   recently occurred along a stationary boundary, evident via MRMS
   mosaic and regional radar imagery. These storms are slowly
   propagating southward into a pristine environment with surface
   temperatures still over 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints,
   yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Still, vertical shear is
   modest at best, with around 30 kts of effective bulk shear that is
   oriented (vector-wise) roughly parallel with the orientation of
   ongoing linear convection. Given 7.5 0-3 km lapse rates, at least a
   couple of strong wind gusts are possible, and a severe gust cannot
   be completely ruled out. Nonetheless, the severe threat should
   remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36689041 37618858 37988739 38128609 38018584 37408556
               36888580 36748696 36638825 36598970 36689041 

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