Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1528

   Mesoscale Discussion 1528
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0538 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Areas affected...North-central Louisiana into far east Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467...

   Valid 062238Z - 070045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms has been producing 50-65 mph
   winds over the past hour. Based on the downstream environment,
   similar wind speeds will be possible for the next couple of hours as
   the band of storms spreads east into north-central Louisiana.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KSHV shows swaths of strong
   low-level velocities within a cold-pool driven band of convection.
   KSHV and K4F2 (Carthage, TX) sampled 63 and 58 mph winds
   (respectively) with the passage of the band. Although deep-layer
   shear remains very limited in the vicinity of the band, fairly
   unstable conditions downstream (MLCAPE estimated to be around 2500
   J/kg) will continue to promote strong updraft development along the
   leading edge of the outflow boundary. Somewhat steep low-level lapse
   rates of around 8 to 8.5 C/km will continue to facilitate downdraft
   accelerations and contribute to the development of additional swaths
   of strong to severe winds. Based on the downstream environment, peak
   wind gusts will most likely remain in the 50-70 mph range. 

   A weak/shallow cold pool associated with diminishing convection
   across north-central LA may delineate the eastern edge of where
   these peak gusts may occur, but warmer temperatures to the southeast
   and better alignment of the cold pool with the deep-layer wind shear
   vector may promote severe gusts as far south as the southern fringe
   of WW 467.

   ..Moore.. 07/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32019470 32079428 32329386 32579370 32909369 33079345
               33019257 32729240 32439239 32049246 31789254 31579271
               31429302 31389346 31399390 31449433 31619459 32019470 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN