Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1526

   Mesoscale Discussion 1526
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania into eastern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062158Z - 070000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage may increase in the coming hours as
   boundaries begin to collide, and the convective environment should
   support a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the threat
   should remain sufficiently transient and isolated to preclude watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show a
   trio of surface boundaries across central to western PA and into far
   eastern OH. Convection ongoing along these boundaries has largely
   demonstrated pulse behavior with poor organization and short
   durations - largely owing to weak flow aloft as sampled by regional
   VWPs. However, some clustering has been noted across north-central
   PA. Over the next several hours, boundary collisions may promote an
   uptick in thunderstorm coverage across far eastern OH into western
   PA where temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s and MLCAPE
   values are near 1000-1500 J/kg. The meager deep-layer wind shear
   will continue to promote mostly disorganized convection, but a few
   more intense (albeit transient) thunderstorms may be capable of
   producing sporadic strong to perhaps severe downburst winds (most
   likely 40-60 mph). Some degree of clustering and cold pool
   amalgamation appears possible, which may promote more concentrated
   corridors of damaging winds, but confidence in this potential is
   limited.

   ..Moore.. 07/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41008131 41558007 41867902 41897849 41527798 41107794
               40617784 40177764 39757728 39407738 39307782 39437857
               39597911 39937967 40188035 40468100 40638130 41008131 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH