2024-07-03 18:34:04
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Mesoscale Discussion 1526 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032231Z - 040000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may develop through the remainder of the afternoon. A couple instances of severe wind and hail are possible. However, any severe threat that materializes should remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and MRMS mosaic radar imagery shows a line of cumulus congestus and associated isolated thunderstorm development, located along a baroclinic boundary extending from southwestern MO into northeast OK. These storms are developing amid 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. Straight hodographs with modest length are noted via regional VAD profilers, suggesting that multicells and perhaps transient supercells will be the primary modes of convection for any storms that can become established. Severe wind and hail are the main concerns. However, the severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36279252 35979391 35619548 35559637 35479731 35569795 36039812 36099805 36579585 36989397 36849312 36689249 36279252 |
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