Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1525

   Mesoscale Discussion 1525
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southern/central AR...northern LA...and
   northeast TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 062017Z - 062245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will
   gradually increase through the afternoon. Convective trends are
   being monitored, and a watch could eventually be warranted.

   DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding a compact
   midlevel low/vort max is aiding in the development of thunderstorms
   along a weak surface boundary in northern/central AR, with
   additional development within a broad low-level confluence zone
   extending from northeast TX into central AR. Within this zone,
   strong diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist PBL (lower 70s
   dewpoints) beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by
   SHV 18Z sounding) is contributing to around 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE.
   This increasing buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse
   rates will be favorable for damaging downbursts with the stronger
   storms that evolve. Given weak deep-layer shear, thunderstorms
   should generally remain disorganized/outflow dominant. However, the
   aforementioned buoyancy and focused area of deep-layer ascent could
   promote several loosely organized clusters capable of scattered
   damaging winds and sporadic severe hail with time. 

   Convective trends (especially a tendency for clustering) are being
   monitored, and a watch could eventually be warranted for parts of
   the area.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32039275 31969348 32219477 32459527 32809557 33389551
               33719532 34149485 34889418 35389339 35439263 35189192
               34669152 33819146 33239150 32369217 32039275 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN