2024-07-03 16:45:03
1720040132
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| Mesoscale Discussion 1522 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024
Areas affected...far eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 031940Z - 032145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development will continue into the evening
with potential for damaging wind and large hail.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across portions
of eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon. A
recent 18z sounding from UNR shows meager instability with MLCAPE <
250 J/kg and MUCAPE around 500 J/kg. Low-level moisture is also
meager, with dew points generally in the mid 40s to 50s. Despite
meager moisture, ample deep layer shear around 40-45 kts remains in
place across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Instability
does increase near the Nebraska border south of the surface
boundary. In this region, transient elevated supercells have been
ongoing. Confidence in a sustained severe threat remains uncertain,
given generally poor thermodynamics. This area will be monitored for
trends and potential for watch issuance should additional storms
intensify.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 43530431 43640498 44190578 44550589 44960575 44990502
44820276 43929961 43329975 43079972 43000097 43030276
43070311 43420366 43530431
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