Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1520

   Mesoscale Discussion 1520
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0938 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

   Areas affected...Western North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464...

   Valid 060238Z - 060415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe hail and wind gusts will
   persist through 04 UTC, but the overall threat should steadily
   diminish with time.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has struggled to maintain intensity over the
   past couple of hours across western ND, and continuous convective
   overturning has been gradually eroding MLCAPE based on mesoanalysis
   estimates. Despite this, a few stronger updrafts continue to briefly
   intensify to severe limits based on MRMS MESH estimates.
   Additionally, at least isolated severe wind gusts have been observed
   with some of the collapsing convection. Richer low-level moisture
   along and north of Highway 23 has maintained some degree of
   buoyancy, which may continue to allow occasional/isolated strong to
   severe thunderstorms over the next couple of hours. However,
   continued overturning and nocturnal stabilization should further
   diminish buoyancy and steadily reduce the potential for severe
   convection. Temporal extension of WW 464 beyond the scheduled 04 UTC
   expiration will likely not be needed.

   ..Moore.. 07/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47440325 48420210 48740160 48810105 48720067 48380032
               48110029 46880185 46780251 46860295 47150327 47440325 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN