Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1515

   Mesoscale Discussion 1515
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

   Areas affected...North central and northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463...

   Valid 052206Z - 052330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph will be the
   primary severe threat the next few hours, especially across
   northwest Texas.  The severe threat may extend into the Midland CWA,
   outside the current watch.

   DISCUSSION...Multicell storm clusters have formed this afternoon
   from the TX South Plains into northwest TX, and a separate area of
   storms is ongoing in northeast TX.  The eastern storms will pose a
   threat for occasional wet microbursts as convection develops slowly
   southward on outflow.  Larger storm clusters with multiple outflow
   surges are ongoing across northwest TX.  The storms are developing
   southwestward into the zone of strongest surface heating with the
   steepest low-level lapse rates, roughly outlined in the cumulus
   field that extends to about Sweetwater.  This zone will encompass
   the relatively greater threat for severe outflow winds with hybrid
   microbursts into this evening, especially with cell and outflow
   mergers.

   Low-level moisture is a bit more limited toward Lubbock and the west
   part of the watch.  However, deep inverted-V profiles favor strong
   downdrafts.  The more probable area for severe gusts over the next
   couple of hours will be with new storm development immediately
   northeast of and into the Lubbock area where north-south and
   east-west outflow segments merge.

   ..Thompson.. 07/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31899568 31619442 31349434 31169478 31499649 31959703
               32259742 32479787 32609826 32609890 32539933 32449969
               32430019 32490068 32650116 33080183 33370217 33600235
               33860233 33940217 34000177 34250136 34250119 33840095
               33530041 33770000 33749975 33509944 33339882 33379831
               33539793 33199710 32249616 31899568 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN