Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1507

   Mesoscale Discussion 1507
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0544 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

   Areas affected...Central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...

   Valid 012244Z - 020015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds and hail are possible with convection this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strongest mid-level height falls are spreading across
   the northern High Plains this evening in response to upstream
   short-wave trough. Extensive cloudiness has limited surface heating
   across much of ND, and low-level lapse rates are not particularly
   steep. Even so, a narrow corridor of pre-frontal buoyancy extends
   across south-central into central ND where MLCAPE values are near
   1000 J/kg. Convection should continue to congeal along/ahead of the
   wind shift, but in the absence of meaningful supercell development,
   hail should generally remain below 1.5 inches. Gusty winds may be
   the primary concern, and generally less than 50kt.

   ..Darrow.. 07/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45930049 46890045 47770144 47950022 47329928 46039957
               45930049