Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1506

   Mesoscale Discussion 1506
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0724 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...Central Nebraska into extreme northeast Colorado

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...

   Valid 050024Z - 050200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A storm cluster in central Nebraska will continue
   developing south-southeastward next 1-2 hours with isolated
   strong-severe wind/hail.  Additional cluster development in extreme
   northeast Colorado could pose some wind/hail threat southwest of the
   current watch area.

   DISCUSSION...Storms in central NE have grown into a small cluster
   that is developing south-southeastward on outflow, while newer
   storms have strengthened in far northeast CO.  There is a small
   contribution to ascent in the watch area as a diffuse mid-upper
   trough approaches from the northwest, as well as some enhancement of
   northwesterly mid-upper flow (25-30 kt).  The NE and CO clusters
   will pose a threat for isolated severe outflow gusts and large hail
   for the next couple of hours.  After about 02-03z, storm longevity
   comes into question with an increase in convective inhibition and a
   lack of a low-level jet.  Thus, it is not clear that any watch
   extensions or a new watch into far northeast CO/northwest KS will be
   necessary.

   ..Thompson.. 07/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   41599999 42269868 41999841 41569858 41119926 40420072
               39940134 39600206 39700278 39960285 40610244 40890205
               41340099 41599999 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN