US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1505

Published Date and Time: 2026-07-04 20:20:00



   Mesoscale Discussion 1505
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0719 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457...459...

   Valid 050019Z - 050215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457, 459
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of higher severe wind potential is emerging
   from eastern Maryland into Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, and New
   Jersey. Wind gusts between 55-70 mph will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, two more prominent clusters have
   emerged across southeast PA and MD with substantial upticks in
   lightning counts and steadily cooling cloud-top temperatures noted
   in IR imagery. At the surface, both of these clusters have produced
   severe wind gusts as they begin to impinge on a warm air mass with
   steep low-level lapse rates. Although temperatures downstream from
   these clusters have begun to cool due to the recent loss of daytime
   heating, temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s with 25-30 F
   dewpoint depressions noted ahead of the clusters and south of an
   outflow boundary. 

   Further cooling/stabilization is expected, but maturing cold pools
   associated with these clusters, coupled with somewhat stronger
   mid-level flow with north and eastward extent, will likely maintain
   convective intensities and may promote some degree of
   intensification over the next couple of hours. Consequently, the
   potential for strong/severe winds (most likely between 55-70 mph)
   should be focused downstream into portions of far southeast PA and
   central/southern NJ - mainly along and south of the outflow
   boundary.

   ..Moore.. 07/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38457608 39437619 39867630 40077625 40287604 40627455
               40567416 40377397 40127393 39837400 39617412 39377435
               39127463 38977475 38777496 38627497 38427500 38287525
               38347563 38387597 38457608 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH



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