US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1505

2024-07-01 17:53:02

   Mesoscale Discussion 1505
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0447 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

   Areas affected...far eastern Colorado into far western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012147Z - 012245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe gust threat may
   materialize this afternoon. An instance of severe hail also cannot
   be completely ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway along the KS/CO
   border, where surface temperatures have warmed to over 100 F south
   of a warm front. Surface dewpoints are only in the upper 50s to low
   60s F, indicative of a deep, mixed boundary layer in place, with 0-3
   km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km. Vertical wind shear is not
   particularly strong (i.e. 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear), so
   multicell storms modes should be favored. Given the deep boundary
   layer and potential for evaporative cooling, at least a few severe
   gusts are possible with the stronger storms, and an instance of
   marginally severe hail cannot be completely ruled out. Overall
   coverage of severe is uncertain at this time. However, at least
   parts of eastern CO/western KS may need a WW issuance pending more
   favorable convective trends.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/01/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37200429 38620336 39750168 39980077 39849990 39419980
               38650010 37850101 37240178 37020248 37040319 37200429 

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