2024-07-01 17:53:02
1719870871
Mesoscale Discussion 1505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024
Areas affected...far eastern Colorado into far western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 012147Z - 012245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe gust threat may
materialize this afternoon. An instance of severe hail also cannot
be completely ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway along the KS/CO
border, where surface temperatures have warmed to over 100 F south
of a warm front. Surface dewpoints are only in the upper 50s to low
60s F, indicative of a deep, mixed boundary layer in place, with 0-3
km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km. Vertical wind shear is not
particularly strong (i.e. 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear), so
multicell storms modes should be favored. Given the deep boundary
layer and potential for evaporative cooling, at least a few severe
gusts are possible with the stronger storms, and an instance of
marginally severe hail cannot be completely ruled out. Overall
coverage of severe is uncertain at this time. However, at least
parts of eastern CO/western KS may need a WW issuance pending more
favorable convective trends.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37200429 38620336 39750168 39980077 39849990 39419980
38650010 37850101 37240178 37020248 37040319 37200429