Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1501

   Mesoscale Discussion 1501
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0518 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania into southern New York and
   western Connecticut

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

   Valid 042218Z - 050015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of higher severe wind potential may be emerging
   across parts of northeast Pennsylvania into southern New York over
   the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR imagery shows steady cloud top cooling
   of convection near Scranton, PA and west of Albany, NY, hinting at
   gradual intensification. Regional VWPs from central/southern NY
   continue to show 30-40 knot mid-level flow over the region, which is
   supporting similar effective bulk shear values. This kinematic
   environment is favorable for maintenance of the ongoing convection
   and may promote further organization. Although regional buoyancy is
   not overly robust, a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remains in
   place immediately downstream of these clusters where low-level lapse
   rates remain near 8 C/km after full diurnal heating. These
   thermodynamic conditions will also promote storm maintenance and
   facilitate cold pool development. Given the downstream
   thermodynamic/kinematic environment, some uptick in severe wind
   potential appears likely over the next couple of hours with either
   of these clusters.

   ..Moore.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   40867371 41127560 41227591 41597589 41947561 42257528
               42437499 42557474 42547449 42487413 41767272 41617256
               41467262 41277278 41177295 41047334 40867371 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN