Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 150

   Mesoscale Discussion 0150
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

   Areas affected...southeastern Kansas into western/central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 062147Z - 070015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk should gradually increase over the next
   few hours. While timing is uncertain, a watch may eventually be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...Slightly elevated convection is gradually deepening
   within a zone of low-level warm advection over southwestern MO and
   southeastern KS -- along the southeastern periphery of earlier
   thunderstorm clusters. Here, boundary-layer dewpoints are increasing
   into the lower 60s amid pockets of diurnal heating in cloud breaks.
   While a low-level warm layer and related inhibition (evident in
   earlier nearby soundings and forecast profiles) limits confidence in
   thunderstorm evolution/maturation -- especially given weak
   large-scale forcing for ascent -- the continued destabilization may
   favor gradual intensification through the afternoon into this
   evening. If thunderstorms can become surface-based, around 40-50 kt
   of effective shear and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
   would support supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging
   winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes. 

   Given the uncertainty on timing/evolution of the severe risk in this
   corridor, a watch is not expected in the near-term, though
   convective trends are being monitored.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37929582 38539555 39269474 39649414 39739362 39609309
               39309281 38809271 38019311 37219385 36939426 36929468
               37069564 37479583 37929582 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN