Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1498

   Mesoscale Discussion 1498
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0503 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   Areas affected...portion of eastern Maryland and Virginia into
   Delaware

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...

   Valid 302203Z - 302330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 491. Strong to severe wind gusts (50-65 mph) remain the
   primary threat with the stronger storms, though an instance of
   marginally severe (around 1 inch diameter) hail is also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Multicells and occasional transient supercells are in
   progress across eastern MD into DE and eastern VA, which have shown
   signs of intensification over the past couple of hours per latest
   MRMS mosaic radar data. Though deep-layer shear is not as strong as
   farther north (i.e. around 35 kts or so of bulk effective shear),
   this amount of shear is more than adequate given 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE
   in place. Regional radar data suggests these storms may be producing
   wet downbursts, so strong to severe gusts remain possible through
   the remainder of the afternoon, in additional to an instance or two
   of marginally severe hail.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36717934 38897732 39597624 39657519 39307463 38277485
               37567537 36807598 36237654 36217772 36157892 36717934